Forums & Workshops


Addressing Uncertainty in Board Decision Making

Forums Manager
15:30 - 17:30
The Old Library, Lloyd's, One Lime Street, London, EC3M 7HA


Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed decisions. However, many decision makers and their advisors do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. Six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty are proposed. These follow extensive work by an IFOA* Working party over a five-year period. The human aspects of decision making under uncertainty are relevant to Boards especially.

Key Learning Objectives:

  • The failure to face up to issues surrounding uncertainty is a threat to good decision making.
  • Six high level Uncertainty Principles for consideration in supporting, making, or critiquing decisions.
  • Explaining and understanding uncertainty for experts and decision makers.
  • Exploring Insurance related case studies, highlighting situations where there is a high level of ‘unknowability’.



The Master, Dr. Terry Masters

Terry is a member of Chartered Insurance Institute, Securities and Investment Association and the British Insurance Law Association. He is a Non-Executive Director of Faraday, Berkshire Hathaway’s Lloyds Operation and Chairman of its Audit and Risk Committees. Terry was previously CEO of Aon ReSolutions, Aetna and American Reinsurance Company.

Melinda Strudwick

Melinda is a qualified actuary and a Director working in PwC’s Risk Modelling Services practice with over 15 years’ experience.

She advises many non-life insurers and reinsurers, spanning personal, commercial lines and Lloyd’s/London Market. She leads a range of actuarial services, including audit, reserving, model validation and IFRS17. At PwC she leads our risk and capital team, specialising in risk management, economic and regulatory capital, regulatory change and approvals.

She is co-chair of the IFOA General Insurance Research Organisation (GIRO) 'Managing Uncertainty' working party.

Paul Kaye

Paul has oversight of the Actuarial practice at Aon within Reinsurance in London. He has a wide-ranging practical experience from underwriting, reinsurance analysis and strategy to capital modelling and has worked with a number of large global insurance and reinsurance groups. Prior to working Benfield Greig in 2000, he worked for Commercial Union.

*IFOA : The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries


Please Note:

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CPD Hours:
This accredited iNED Forum qualifies for 1.5 hours CII / PFS CPD

Download the presentations:

Managing Uncertainty

Booking Fee:
£50.00 (including VAT)

The Old Library, Lloyd's, One Lime Street, London, EC3M 7HA

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